Table 1 Aggregated results for global events

C3

0.52

0.95

0.54

0.91

7.6

3.2

0.53

(0.44,0.59)

(0.94,0.96)

(0.46,0.61)

(0.93,0.96)

C2

0.42

0.97

0.57

0.92

5.1

3.1

0.48

(0.34,0.50)

(0.96,0.98)

(0.48,0.66)

(0.93,0.96)

W2

0.42

0.97

0.59

0.92

5.2

3.1

0.49

(0.34,0.50)

(0.96,0.98)

(0.49,0.68)

(0.93,0.95)

F-stat

0.67

0.88

0.45

0.85

16.2

4.0

0.54

(0.61,0.73)

(0.86,0.89)

(0.40,0.51)

(0.93,0.96)

EWMA

0.44

0.95

0.51

0.90

6.5

3.0

0.47

(0.37,0.52)

(0.94,0.96)

(0.42,0.59)

(0.92,0.95)

All language news (Worldwide)

model

Se

Sp

PPV

NPV

Alarms^A

Days^B

F1

C3

0.67

0.91

0.48

0.89

12.0

4

0.56

(0.59,0.73)

(0.90,0.93)

(0.41,0.54)

(0.95,0.97)

C2

0.54

0.95

0.49

0.91

7.1

3.7

0.51

(0.46,061)

(0.94,0.96)

(0.42,0.56)

(0.95,0.97)

W2

0.55

0.95

0.52

0.91

10.6

3.7

0.54

(0.47,0.63)

(0.94,0.96)

(0.44,0.60)

(0.94,0.97)

F-stat

0.87

0.80

0.45

0.80

26.6

5.3

0.60

(0.83,0.91)

(0.77,0.81)

(0.41,0.50)

(0.96,0.98)

EWMA

0.48

0.93

0.44

0.89

7.8

3.7

0.46

(0.40,0.56)

(0.92,0.94)

(0.36,0.52)

(0.93,0.95)